原文发表于美国时间2018-3-22 今天的现货市场开盘将低走。标准普尔指数期货下跌30点,交易价格低于公允价值1.0%。纳斯达克100指数期货下跌101点,道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌288点,交易价格分别低于公允价值1.3%和1.0%。 对今天大盘表现出弱势简单而直接的解释就是因为美联储周三加息0.25个基点,并且美联储政策声明的观点听起来偏鹰派。美联储加息之举并不让人惊讶,并且公平的说,美联储还没有火力全开。 一个自诩进行了全面估值的股市并不喜欢美联储有继续加息的意图,尽管股市在昨天的美联储议息会议之前就知道事情会如此发展。 美联储的决定以及美联储主席鲍威尔对这一决定和对未来经济预测的解释,与我们在美联储议息会议之前预估的结果一致。 换句话说,今早股市的做空偏好不能完全责怪美联储。使用保证金的投资者可以如此,其他投资人则大可责怪其他因素,如:
其他消息方面,英国央行如市场预期般将其关键政策利率保持在0.50%不变;然而这不是英国央行货币委员会的一致决定。有两名委员对此持有异议,这是个让人惊喜的信号,意味着也许很快就可以看到英国央行加息。 首次申请失业救济金报告的数据表现不赖。 截至3月17日的一周首次申请失业救济金人数增加3,000至22.9万(Briefing.com预估为22.5万)。截至3月10日的一周再次申请失业救济金人数下降5.7万至182.8万,这是自1973年12月29日以来的最低水平。 因为这份报告的统计时间段与3月份就业报告的统计时间大部重合,从这份报告可获得的一个重要信息是,低水平的首次申请失业救济金人数将支持对非农就业报告又一次强劲增长预测。 你可以尽情地谴责美联储加息导致早盘低开,但你不能只指责美联储。有多个方面的事情需要指责,因为多重因素造成了目前股市的恐慌。
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这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Briefing.com。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致,以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息,不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容,不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买,出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前,您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况,并在必要时寻求专业建议。
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