原文发表于2017年5月18日（纽约时间）。

无论你以哪种方式分析，昨天都是糟糕的一天。周三标普是其八个月以来最大幅度的日下跌，且纽交所跌涨比率为-6:1，罗素2000成份股为-11:1。标普500股票以20天低点交易百分比突破30%，这是低于通常的可交易低点一致的50%-60%的门槛。2/10收益率曲线也还是持平（目前低于100）且运输业和银行业目前重回重要支持线。

从最近高点附近的大幅下降天数并不能意味着疲软的结束，考虑到季节性逆势，我们不能排除近期更深层次的回调。但是在较大背景下分析昨天的价格变动也是很重要的。我们的趋势分析依然坚挺地处在积极的区域，信贷条件并没有恶化到任何有意义的程度。昨天波动率指数（上涨46%）的反应也表明市场情绪依然比较脆弱，这也反应在我们过去24小时内和客户会议/电话/电子邮件中…投资者有些紧张。昨天看跌/看涨比率出乎意料地和缓，但是这也是一个非常有用的指标 –我们将在未来几天或几周中密切关注该信号指标。

尽管亚洲市场隔夜走低且欧洲市场今早也有所下滑，但许多全球市场仍保持着领导地位。在这种时刻我们不愿意过于负面，我们把2320水平作为近期支持线，随后是200天平均值2255（从目前下跌4.5%）。

标普32%负向价格警报

波动率指数反应表明市场情绪非常脆弱

2/10收益率曲线目前低于100

几个主要行业的类似的恶化

Bad Day, But Does It Change The Call?

It was a bad day any way you cut it.  The S&P saw its sharpest daily decline in 8 months on Wednesday with breadth at -6:1 on the NYSE and -11:1 among Russell 2000 issues.  The % of S&P 500 stocks trading to a 20-day low hit 30%, which is below the 50-60% threshold often consistent with a tradeable low.  The 2/10 curve has continued to flatten as well (now below 100) and both the Transports and Banks are now back to important support. 

Sharp down days near recent highs rarely mark the end of weakness and given the seasonal headwind, we can’t rule out a deeper pullback in the near-term.  But it’s also important to consider yesterday’s price action in context of the bigger picture.  Our trend work remains solidly in positive territory and credit conditions have not deteriorated to any meaningful extent.  Yesterday’s reaction from the VIX (+46%) also suggests that sentiment remains very fragile, and this has also been reflected in our client meetings / calls / emails over the last 24 hours… investors are nervous.  Put/calls were surprisingly benign yesterday, but are often a useful tactical indicator – we’ll watch this closely over coming days and weeks for signal. 

While Asia was lower overnight and Europe is down this morning, many global markets remain a source of leadership.  We’re reluctant to get too negative at this juncture and are looking to the 2320 level as near-term support followed by the 200-day average at 2255 (about -4.5% lower from here).  

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者为Strategas Research Partners。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。

该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。

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