原文发表于2017年5月16日（纽约时间）。

房屋市场通常是一个早期的周期变量信号。但是美国过去八年的经历表明该周期目前为止表现地不太一样。四月份房屋开始月同比下降2.6%。独栋房屋许可月同比下跌4.5%，目前处于789,000 SAAR（按季节性调整后年度化销售量预期），仍低于六十年平均值887,000以下。NAHB（全国房屋建筑商协会）房屋建筑商指数仍旧上涨2个基点接近五月周期高点70，这表明房屋将保持其前行两步后退一步的改进模式。四月份的美国工业生产很强劲，月同比上涨1.0%且开工率高达76.7%（有上涨趋势）。没错，五月份的纽约联储制造业指数下跌至-1（鉴于我们已经马上进入2017年下半年-保持上涨走势需要有新的发展，财政政策仍是最明显的选择）。我们的SLIM制造业调查也显示新订单达到峰值，尽管仍处于扩张区域。国外方面，德国五月份的ZEW经济情绪有所改进，但仅是略微改进。英国零售价格的上涨表明欧洲仍然要早于美国承受英国脱欧的痛楚，但是通货膨胀整体来看非常易于管理（基于最近大部分美国核心消费者价格指数和通胀预期，其实是低的）。

调查数据仍表明美国房屋行业采取前进两步后退一步的模式

美国工业生产上涨，与改进收益一致

Still Pent-Up Demand For U.S. Housing

Housing is typically an early-cycle variable.  But the U.S. experience of the past 8 years suggests this cycle is playing out differently thus far. Housing starts dipped -2.6% m/m in April. Single-unit permits declined -4.5% m/m, and at a 789,000 SAAR remain below the 6 decade average of 887,000.  Still, the NAHB homebuilders index rising +2 points to a near-cycle-high of 70 in May suggests housing will continue its 2-steps-forward-1-back pattern of improvement. U.S. industrial production was strong in April, rising +1.0% m/m and pulling the operating rate up to 76.7% (there’s momentum).  True, the NY Fed mfg index dipped to -1 in May (continuing the momentum will require a new story as we move into 2H of 2017 – fiscal policy remains the obvious choice).  Our SLIM mfg survey also showed new orders peaking, though still in expansion territory. Abroad, ZEW economic sentiment in Germany improved in May, but only slightly. The rise in retail prices in the U.K. is a reminder that the pain of Brexit is still ahead of us in Europe, but inflation overall looks very manageable (and actually a bit low based on the most recent U.S. core CPI & inflation expectations).

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者为Strategas Research Partners。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。

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