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盈透:Snap股票有些许获利回吐交易

2017-5-12 04:52 盈透专栏 interactive 评论: (0) |原作者: Briefing.com|来自: IB美国盈透证券

原文发表于2017年5月11日(纽约时间)。


鉴于标普期货下跌5个基点并以低于公允值0.2%的价格交易,这标志着现金市场负向走势的开始。


可能会有人将这种疲软归因于Snap公司(代码:SNAP)发布了令人失望的第一季度报告(作为上市公司发布的第一个财报),其股票在开市前下降22%。


这种错误的断言特别有一点值得一提:就市值来讲,SNAP还没有能力可以对广阔的市场造成这样的影响。


Snap的疲软主要是个别股票的情况,尽管我们承认,这可能显示出许多情况下股票估值过于扩大,且当不好的事情发生时可能产生的影响。


因此,鉴于几个主要指数在过去几周内以不太鼓舞人心的方式突破历史新高,一些获利回吐的出现亦是市场整体反映的一部分。


同时,鉴于媒体正在解析税改不发生的可能性,华盛顿上演的政治戏剧也助推了获利回吐的活动。


这样的解析并不是第一次,这就是为什么几个主要指数在最近几周内重复突破历史新高。再然而,尽管存在对估值过高的担忧,但对税制改革不可能发生的想法在此为获利回吐提供了一个便利的借口。


来自零售商梅西百货(股票代码:M)令人失望的盈利报告是促成今早市场情绪的另一关键因素。梅西百货销售收入和净利润都没达到预期,报告的自有可比销售额下降了5.2%。开市前梅西股票下跌11%。


同行零售商Kohl’s(股票代码:KSS)实际上以一个理想的差额高出分析师的预期平均盈利,但是该公司的第一季度销售额和可比销售额也有所下滑。其股价在开市前交易中下跌不到1.0%。


美国银行/美林证券卡特彼勒有限公司(股票代码:CAT)和埃克森美孚(股票代码:XOM)从中性升级为购买。以及默克公司(MRK)的KEYTRUDA药物已被FDA(美国食品药品监督管理局)批准扩大使用的消息都是对市场的支持。


然而,这些蓝筹股的早时上涨并不足以完全扭转期货趋势。


另外,令人鼓舞的失业救济人员报告亦是如此。截止至5月6日的周初始救济人数减少了2,000至236, 000(Briefing.com预测为238, 000);与此同时,截止至4月29日的周持续救济人数下降了61, 000至1, 918,000,这是自1988年11月5日以来的最低水平。


即使四月份就业报告中没有看到平稳的平均小时工资增长,但失业救济人员数据肯定符合紧张的劳动力市场情况。


另一方面,四月生产者价格指数也带来一些积极的惊喜,最终需求指数增加0.5%(Briefing.com预测增加0.2%);不包括食品和能源的最终需求指数增加0.4%(Briefing.com预测增加为0.2%)。


在未调整的基础上,最终需求指数年同比增加2.5%,这是自截止至2012年2月的12个月期间以来最大涨幅。不包括食品和能源,和截止至3月的12个月期间的1.6%相比,最终需求指数年同比增加1.9%。


这次报告的主要内容是4月份通货膨胀的压力反映在生产商上,这会产生将通胀转嫁给消费者的担忧,尤其是因为中期需要的所有四个阶段都有价格压力。


其他方面,英格兰银行的政策利率和资产购置计划按照预期保持不变,油价(47.85美元,上涨0.52美元,或上涨1.1%)持续反弹,部分受益于一些卖空回补投资活动。


A Bit of a Profit-Taking Snap

The S&P futures are signaling a negative start for the cash market as they are down five points and trading 0.2% below fair value.

There might be a tendency to attribute the weakness to Snap's (SNAP) disappointing first quarter report (and first report as a public company), which has the stock down 22% in pre-market action.

There is one thing in particular that is wrong about such an assertion: Snap doesn't have the size in terms of market cap to exert such influence on the broader market.

The weakness in Snap is predominately stock-specific, although we will concede that it has probably shed some light for others on the matter of stock valuations being stretched in many instances and the fallout that can occur when bad things happen.

Hence, with several of the major indices having hit record highs in recent weeks in a less-than-inspiring fashion, some profit taking is in the general mix of things.

At the same time, the political circus playing in Washington is also contributing to the profit-taking activity as the media is drawing lines to the possibility of tax reform not happening.

It's not the first time such lines have been drawn, which is why it bears repeating that several major indices just hit record highs in recent weeks.  Again, though, with valuation concerns simmering below the surface, the notion that tax reform might not happen has offered a convenient excuse to take some profits at this time.

The disappointing earnings report from retailer Macy's (M)  has been another factor weighing on sentiment this morning.  Macy's missed expectations with its top and bottom-line results and reported a 5.2% decline in comparable sales on an owned basis.  Shares of M are down 11% in pre-market action.

Fellow retailer Kohl's (KSS) actually surpassed analysts' average earnings expectation by a comfortable margin, yet it also experienced a decline in sales and comparable sales in the first quarter. Its stock is down less than 1.0% in pre-market trading.

Bank of America/Merrill Lynch upgraded Caterpillar (CAT) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Buy from Neutral.  That is lending a measure of support along with the news that Merck's (MRK) KEYTRUDA drug has been approved for expanded use by the FDA.

The early gains in those blue-chip stocks, though, hasn't been enough to turn the futures tide entirely.

The same can be said for yet another encouraging jobless claims report.  Initial claims for the week ending May 6 decreased by 2,000 to 236,000 (Briefing.com consensus 238,000); meanwhile, continuing claims for the week ending April 29 dropped by 61,000 to 1.918 million, which is the lowest level since November 5, 1988.

The jobless claims data certainly fits well with the tight labor market narrative even if the subdued average hourly earnings growth seen in the April employment report does not.

Separately, the Producer Price Index for April also produced some upside surprises, with the index for final demand increasing 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) and the index for final demand, excluding food and energy, rising 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%).

On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand is up 2.5% year-over-year, which is largest increase since the 12 months ended February 2012.  Excluding food and energy, the index for final demand is up 1.9% year-over-year versus 1.6% for the 12 months ended in March.

The key takeaway from this report is that inflation pressures picked up for producers in April and that is going to create some concerns about a pass-through effect to consumers, particularly since there were price pressures noted across all four stages of intermediate demand.

In other developments, the Bank of England left its policy rate and asset purchase program unchanged, both of which were expected, and oil prices ($47.85, +$0.52, +1.1%) continue to rebound, helped in part by some short-covering activity.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com


这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Briefing.com。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致,以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息,不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容,不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买,出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前,您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况,并在必要时寻求专业建议。

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