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盈透:新兴市场走势接近主要趋势突破

2017-3-24 02:57 盈透专栏 interactive 评论: (0) |原作者: Lowry Research Corp|来自: IB美国官方盈透证券

作为我们的2017年二月14日盈透证券文章的补充内容,我们想要强调一下由Lowry Research对新兴市场的研究得出的最近确认的对其需求的突破和坚挺。自我们发出报告以来,各个新兴市场的绝对和相对表现均持续良好。鉴于今年迄今为止表现最好的是许多新兴市场,且拥有长期积极的发展,他们已经变得越来越不可忽视,值得更多有意义的关注。

新兴市场在某些程度上没有受重视的原因之一是他们一定程度上不稳定的交易历史;更具体来讲,是自2007年后期高点以来长期的交易区间。然而, 就下图所见,以iShares MSCI 新兴市场指数ETF(交易所交易基金)(EEM)为例,这些交易区间总体上似乎形成了大型对称三角分布模式。对于不熟悉这个术语的人来说,这种模式通常在作为持续走势的趋势中形成,这意味着未来变化将在阻塞区域形成之前继续之前的一个方向走势,在本例中即上升趋势。该模式至少包含两个较低高点和两个较高低点。当这些点连接起来时,所形成的的线就会沿着这些点的扩展而收敛,对称三角形也就形成。决定性的向上突破下降趋势线将是一种指示:即在近十年后,该模式终于截至,这些市场的主要趋势可能会发生变化。

除了从这个模式看涨突破的可能性,投资者也应该意识到供需之间的潜在力量,作为确认这种潜在主要趋势改变的因素。我们的判断方式是监测购买力,这是Lowry的首要的,自有的衡量中期需求的指标,用于最重要新兴市场国家的指数水平。为了说明此法,我们将参考EEM图表作为一个单个证券实例,通过使用另一种专业指标 - 能量等级和能量等级的相对强度来阐述投资者需求的概念。能量等级是Lowry分析行业,工业以及个人证券需求的专业指标。通过使用影响股票需求力量(来自日交易活动的分析)的三个独立成分而生成这些指标。下图展示了能量等级,能量等级的相对强度以及价格从一年前的7年来的低点持续不断回升。事实上,EEM的能量等级(下图中价格线以下的蓝线)目前为90(其最大值为99),这是我们数据库中最强劲的证券。持续高于90交易的证券是相当罕见的,也是需求强度和相对强度的看涨反映。

像往常一样,如果您有任何问题,敬请联系我们info@lowryresearch.com。


Emerging Markets Nearing Primary Trend Breakout

As a follow-up to our February 14th 2017 Interactive Brokers’ article, we would like to highlight the recent confirmed breakout and firmness of Demand measured at Lowry Research for emerging markets.  Since our report, the markets of the group have continued to perform well in absolute and relative terms.  With many emerging markets among the strongest performers so far this year, the area is becoming more difficult to ignore and is worth monitoring for more meaningful, longer term positive developments. 

One of the reasons emerging markets have been de-emphasized to some degree is their history of choppy trading and, more specifically, the long series of trading ranges since their late 2007 peaks.  However, as seen in the chart below, using the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM) as a proxy, those trading ranges have in aggregate appeared to form a large symmetrical triangle pattern.  For those not familiar with the terminology, the pattern usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern – meaning that the prior trend will tend to resume in the same direction that it had before the congestion zone formed – in this case to the upside.  The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended, and the symmetrical triangle takes shape.  A decisive break above the downtrend line would be an indicator that the pattern has finally resolved after nearly ten years and that the primary trend of these markets has likely changed.

In addition to the possibility of a bullish break from this pattern, investors should also be conscious of the underlying forces of Supply and Demand, as a means of confirming such a potential primary trend change.  We do this by monitoring Buying Power – Lowry’s primary, proprietary measure of intermediate term Demand – for the most important emerging market countries at the index level.  For the purposes of this note we will reference our chart of EEM as a single security example depicting the concept of investor Demand through the use of another set of proprietary indicators—Power Rating and the relative strength of Power Rating.  Power Ratings are Lowry’s proprietary measures of Demand for sectors, industries and individual securities.  They are generated by using three separate components designed to capture the force of Demand for shares, which are drawn from daily trading action.  The below chart illustrates that Power Rating, the relative strength of Power Rating and price continue to recover in tandem from the 7-year lows hit just over a year ago.  In fact, EEM’s Power Rating, which is the blue line under the price series, is now 90 out of a maximum of 99, making it among the strongest securities in our database.  Consistent trading of securities above 90 is a rare and bullish reflection of Demand intensity and relative strength. 

As always, should you have any questions, please feel free to contact us at: info@lowryresearch.com .


这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Lowry Research。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致,以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息,不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容,不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买,出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前,您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况,并在必要时寻求专业建议。

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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