首先，圣帕特里克节（爱尔兰人节日）快乐！借用一句爱尔兰人的传统祝福：在这美好的一天愿爱的大路（还有股价）迎接您，这也是本文作者内心深处的心声。我可以证明今早迎接我的确是芝加哥的冰雪车道，但我不能保证股价是否会如愿。

目前，标普期货上升一个基点，并以些微高于公允值的价格交易。这是在这个四巫日（每季度最后一个月第三个星期五的衍生品到期结算日）平坦开市的设置，这一天是股票期权，指数期权，指数期货以及个股期货的季度到期结算日。

该到期日通常意味着交易量巨大，但是它却不一定意味着主要指数大幅变动。

今早没什么大的新闻，媒体的焦点主要是对昨天没有解决的同一问题的再次论述，今天也不会解决，并且明天也不会有结果。

尤其是以下事宜：医疗保健改革事项，北朝鲜事项，边境税务事项，央行政策事项以及法国总统选举事项。

并不是只有这些事项需要考虑，事实上，最需要考虑的是什么会引起目前股市上升逆转和什么会继续保持目前牛市底层乐观状态的冲突。

这一切的结果是股市似乎进入一种横向盘整模式，并焦急等待着一个“新的”催化剂的出现以进入下一阶段 – 上涨或下跌。

特朗普总统和德国总理默克尔将于今天会谈；关于医疗保健改革的辩论也将持续；今天和明天将会举行G-20财务部长会议；美国国务卿Tillerson已经表明美国对北朝鲜的“策略性耐心”已经结束，并强调在处理北朝鲜的问题上，任何选择都在考虑之内。

或许有一个“新的”新闻催化剂潜伏在这些事项中，但是目前为止，股市还处在观望状态（也可能包括观望今天NCAA（国家大学体育协会）锦标赛）。

今天的提示之前，也可能会给许多锦标赛带来转折点，市场将要消化一些经济数据，它们是：二月工业生产报告（Briefing.com预计上涨0.2%；之前下降0.3%），二月主导指数报告（Briefing.com预计上涨0.5%；之前上涨0.6%），密歇根大学三月初步消费者情绪报告（Briefing.com预计为96.8；之前为96.3）。

尽管这些报告将显示出“硬”经济数据和“软”调查数据的匹配，但是不可能对市场情绪带来任何重大变化。

另一方面，今早Tiffany & Co.（股票代码：TIF）让做空卖家大为失望。在珠宝零售商发布了优于预期的第四季度盈利结果并为下一财务年度提供了令人放心的盈利指南后，其股票在开市前上涨4%。

对于大学篮球队来说还有很多“明年”（例如我的范德比尔特球队），但是我们现在所经历的今天是唯一且重要的一天。愿爱尔兰的运气与我们大家同在。

Matters at Hand

First and foremost, Happy St. Patrick's Day!  May the road and stock prices rise to meet you on this fine day, which is near and dear to your author's heart.  I can attest that an (icy) driveway in Chicago this morning did indeed rise to meet me, but what I can't attest to is if stock prices will follow suit.

Currently, the S&P futures are up a point and are trading a wee bit above fair value.  That's a setup for a flattish open on this quadruple-witching day, which includes the quarterly expiration of stock options, index options, index futures, and single-stock futures.

That expiration should ensure some heavy volume today, yet it may not necessarily ensure a lot of movement in the major indices.

The news flow is on the lighter side this morning and the media's focal points are generally a rehash of the same items that weren't going to be solved yesterday, aren't going to be solved today, and won't be solved tomorrow.  

In particular, there is the matter of health care reform, the matter of North Korea, the matter of the border tax, the matter of central bank policy, and the matter of the French election.

Those aren't the only matters to consider, but the fact of the matter is that an overhang of concern about what could possibly go wrong to upend this stock market is colliding with an underlayer of optimism about what could possibly go right to keep this bull market running.  

The result of it all is that the market has seemingly entered a lateral consolidation mode and is waiting anxiously for a "new" catalyst to take its next step -- either up or down.

President Trump and German Chancellor Merkel are going to meet today; the health care reform debate will persist; there is a G-20 finance ministers meeting today and tomorrow; and Secretary of State Tillerson has indicated the U.S. policy of "strategic patience" with North Korea is over and added all options are on the table when it comes to dealing with North Korea.

Perhaps there is a "new" news catalyst lurking in those areas, but for the time being, the stock market is in an observation mode (which probably includes observing the NCAA Tournament games today, too).

Before today's tip-offs, which could create a tipping point for many tournament brackets, the market will be digesting some economic data that will include the Industrial Production Report for February (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%; prior -0.3%), the Leading Indicators Report for February (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%; prior +0.6%), and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report for March (Briefing.com consensus 96.8; prior 96.3).

Those reports are unlikely to cause any major shifts in sentiment, although they will present another match-up of "hard" economic data and "soft" survey data.

Separately, Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is making it hard on short sellers this morning.  Its stock is up 4% in pre-market action after the jewelry retailer delivered better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings results and providing reassuring earnings guidance for its next fiscal year.

There will be a lot of "next years" for college basketball teams (like my Vanderbilt Commodores), but the day we have all been given today is the only one that matters.   May the luck o' the Irish be with us all.

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Briefing.com。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。

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