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盈透:石油股票盘整;汽车零件行业看涨

2017-3-16 02:01 盈透专栏 interactive 评论: (0) |原作者: Strategas Research Partners|来自: IB美国盈透证券

早上好。昨天标普500股票交易高于其一个月内低点的百分比达到19%,这与市场处于适度盘整情况相一致。小盘股,运输业股票以及高收益率的回调也与自二月中旬以来石油行业的深度调整相符合。我们推测这只是一个小停顿,且持续将2275-2300区间做为未来3个月内标普图表近期支持范围。尽管有避险的意思,但是鉴于美联储在今天的会议上加息的可能性从25%提高到95%,费城黄金/白银指数(XAU)在过去一个月下降了近20%,事实上并没有人买入黄金股票。尽管黄金收益率在过去几天内有所停顿,我们的数据仍然表明最低的阻力线仍然偏高。


在昨天的研究报告中我们提及到许多亚洲市场(上海,恒生以及KOSPI等等)强劲。鉴于SENSEX对最近的选举反应积极,我们也将添加印度市场至该列中。


鉴于全球汽车零件行业从多年来的低位出现上涨,该行业也引起了我们的关注。


自近期石油行业达到高点以来的表现

黄金股票没有买家

与贵金属相比,工业金属收益率更高


Stocks Consolidating With Oil; Bullish On Auto Parts

Good morning.  The % of S&P 500 stocks trading to a one month low hit 19% yesterday, consistent with a modest consolidation still playing out under the surface.  Pullbacks for small-caps, transports, and high yield have also all been coincident with the deeper correction in oil since mid-February.  We suspect this is just a pause, and would continue to look to the 2275-2300 area to mark near-term support on the S&P chart into spring.  Despite the risk-off tone, there has actually been no bid for gold stocks with the XAU down roughly -20% over the last month as Fed odds have increased from about 25% to 95% for today’s meeting.  While global yields have paused over the last few days, our work continues to suggest the path of least resistance is higher.

In yesterday’s work we noted the strength from many of the Asian markets (Shanghai, Hang Seng, KOSPI, etc.).  We would also add the Indian market to that list, with the SENSEX responding positively to the recent election. 

Global auto parts are also a group that has our attention here as it turns up from a multi-year base.


这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Strategas Research Partners如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致,以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息,不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容,不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买,出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前,您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况,并在必要时寻求专业建议。

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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