在昨天纽约邮报的报告中，有一则头条这样写道，”公牛在家畜拍卖展览后绳索松解在逃“。一只公牛的确在纽约上州从家畜展览中逃跑，但是这篇文章也可以解读为二月份的市场走势疯狂上涨。标普连续7个交易日上涨，这是自2013年中期以来持续时间最长的一个上涨阶段。这也是至少35年来连续42个交易时段盘内区间没有超过正负1%的范围。而且，相较于2016纳斯达克100全年仅有17个收盘高点，昨天是今年第18次达到收盘高点。奇怪的是，波动率指数实际在周三上涨约12%（鉴于标普以两位数增长，这是不同寻常的）。如果我们一定要找出内部瑕疵，股票达到65天新高点的百分比仍然反映出这是一个两个不同场景的市场。我们不能排除近期内的盘整，但是在2275-2300区间内的任何回调都有可能得到良好的支持。

52%的金融股票昨天突破历史新高，仍旧是市场上最强劲的行业。自12月中旬有所停歇之后，银行牛市恢复到新的高点。相反，昨天公用事业和房地产相对新低突显了许多债券类资产领导力的持续丧失，特别是三月FOMC（联邦市场公开委员会）加息的概率约为45%（几周前是30%）。

TIPS 与TLT适当担险/避险指标

Bank Bull Market Resuming

In yesterday’s New York Post, one of the headlines reads, “Bull on the Loose After Escaping Livestock Auction Show.” A bull really did escape a livestock show in upstate New York, but the article could have just as well been describing the market’s melt-up in February. The S&P is up for 7 consecutive sessions, marking the longest streak since mid-2013. It has also been 42 consecutive sessions without a +/- 1% intra-day range – the longest run in at least 35 years. Additionally, yesterday marked the 18th closing high for the Nasdaq 100 this year, compared to just 17 closing highs in all of 2016. Curiously the VIX was actually up about 12% on Wednesday (unusual given the double-digit S&P gain), and if we had to find an internal blemish the % of stocks trading to a new 65-day high still reflects a bifurcated market. We wouldn’t rule out a consolidation in the near-term, but any pullbacks into the 2275-2300 area are likely to find good support.

52% of Financial stocks hit a new high yesterday, continuing to underscore one of the strongest pockets of the market. After pausing since mid-December, the Bank bull market has resumed with new highs. Conversely, fresh relative lows for the Utilities and REITs yesterday highlight the continued loss of leadership for many of the bond proxies as odds for a March FOMC hike are now about 45% (from 30% a few weeks ago).

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Strategas Research Partners。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。

该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。

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