延迟的美国退税（由于新立法）可能会在第一季度消费者支出中产生空档期。然而，尽管返税款推迟了，但是他们仍然会发放。我们对于支出的观点仍然是美国消费者已经停止去杠杆化，但不是重新杠杆化。这不是一件坏事，因为有较少的不平衡。我们可能继续趋向近年来所看到合适的3%通货膨胀调节步伐。没错，按揭利率和汽油价格略有上涨，但仍处于历史低点。仍然很低的债务带来的压力和小公司就业职位应该也会继续下去。一月NFIB（全国私人企业联合会）调查结果在这一方面非常鼓舞人。

美国消费者改变他们的购买方式

现在以全价在实体店销售非常困难。零售平减指数已经有两年的负值了，这在衰退期之外都是很少见的。然而，随着商品价格同比上涨，目前对定价权利有了一些总体的缓解。比起其他一些经历（例如，餐饮服务销售一直在放缓），商品销售也开始恢复。

零售体验的改变：

• 网店与实体店

• 商品的体验（包括医疗卫生所占股份）

• 购物比较（智能设备+App）

Despite U.S. Tax-Refund Air Pocket & Inflation, The Consumer Still Has Good Support

Delayed U.S. tax refunds (due to new legislation) could create an air-pocket in consumer spending in 1Q.  However, while payments are delayed, they will still be issued. Our view on spending remains that the U.S. consumer has stopped deleveraging, but is not re-leveraging.  This is not a bad thing, since there are fewer imbalances.  We are likely to continue to trend around the moderate 3% inflation-adjusted pace seen in recent years.  True, mortgage rates & gasoline prices are up slightly, but they are still historically low.  Still-low debt service burdens and small business job creation should also be tailwinds. The Jan NFIB survey was very encouraging in this regard.

U.S. Consumer Changing How They Make Purchases

It’s been a tough time to sell things in stores at full prices.  The retail deflator has been negative for 2 years, which is rare outside recessions.  Still, with commodity prices up y/y, there’s now some general relief on pricing power.  Goods sales are also starting to recover vs. some experiences (eg, food svc sales have been slowing).

Change in the Retail Experience:

• Online vs. In stores

• Experiences over goods (incl Healthcare taking share)

• Comparison Shopping (Smart devices + Apps)

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Strategas Research Partners。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。

该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.