代表了大约80%市值的70%的公司已经公布了盈利报告，其中67%的公司突破了盈利底线，这是高于长期平均水平64%的数字。而上线却了一个不同的情况：只有48%的公司超越预期。该图表显示比长期平均水平59%低了11%个点，这是我们在相当一段时间有所警惕的情况。第四季度盈利增长似乎表现强劲,总预期增长8.5%, 主要由金融和科技行业引领。这是自2014年第三季度以来最强的整体增长率。收入增长也有所突破，公共事业引领，预计增长4.4%。总的来说，整体盈利强劲，第四季度盈利可以说是表现优异，但是现在焦点转移到了2017年。在经历了大约三年的平淡盈利后，市场希望2017年增长约11%，这超出了我们的当前预期4.5%。2017年及以后最大难以预料的将是企业税务改革。该过程将花费一些时日，也可能在最终成功之前就失败了，但是在今年结束之前可能会发生关于税务的变化。然而，结果的范围仍旧无人得知。敬请关注。

第四季度收益记分卡更新：

67%超过平均盈利水平，48%超过平均收入水平

4th Quarter Earnings Generally Strong; 2017 Earnings Poised To Break 3-Year Trend

With 70% of companies reported and about 80% of market cap, 67% of companies have beaten on the bottom line which is above the longer-term average of 64%. The top line tells a different story with only 48% of companies beating estimates. This figure is 11 percentage points lower than its longer-term average of 59% and something we have been cautious on for quite some time. Fourth quarter earnings growth appears to be strong with an expected increase of 8.5% on the aggregate, led by the financial and technology sectors. Overall this will be the strongest growth rate for earnings since 3Q’14. Revenue growth has also perked up and is expected to increase 4.4% led by the utilities sector. Taken as a whole, the 4Q earning season can be described as decent with generally strong earnings but now the focus shifts to 2017. After three years of approximately flat earnings, the street is looking for growth of about 11% in 2017 which is above our current estimate of 4.5%. The biggest wild card for 2017 and beyond will be corporate tax reform. The process will take some time and will likely fail before it succeeds, but something is likely to happen on taxes by year end. However, the range of outcomes is still very wide. Stay tuned.

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Strategas Research Partners。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。

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